Bodo/Glimt vs Lille

The APEX preview · Tue 3 Nov, 03:22 UTC

Bodo/Glimt hold real edge, but Lille's injury crisis changes the picture

The pre-match probabilities already lean clearly toward Bodo/Glimt at 52.5%, with Lille given just 24% — and the underlying data largely backs that up. Bodo/Glimt are generating 2.04 xG per game and averaging 2.38 goals scored across their last eight, while Lille are managing only 1.13 goals per game in the same window despite an xG of 1.59 — meaning they are underperforming their own chances. The most striking layer here is Lille's injury and suspension list: Igamane, Mbappe (suspended), Santos, and Ueda are all unavailable, which severely blunts an already misfiring attack. Bodo/Glimt at home on the Aspmyra surface, with superior recent form and a 57% possession average, look like the stronger side across almost every signal.

Home side has the edge

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities give Bodo/Glimt 52.5% — more than double Lille's 24% chance of winning
• Bodo/Glimt's recent xG of 2.04 for vs 1.28 against shows genuine two-way dominance over their last 8 matches
• Lille have scored just 1.13 goals per game despite an xG of 1.59, revealing a significant finishing underperformance
• Lille are missing Igamane, Santos, and Ueda to injury plus Mbappe to suspension — four key absences hitting their attack directly
• Bodo/Glimt's Champions League season form reads DWWWLWL with 2.3 goals scored per game; Lille's reads LLL with 1.3 scored and 3.3 conceded
• Bodo/Glimt average 17.4 shots per game vs Lille's 11.4 — a 6-shot volume gap that aligns with the pre-match probability lean

What could change it

Bodo/Glimt have their own injury concerns — Mikkelsen, Sjong, and Evjen are all doubts — and they lost their last Champions League away fixture 3-4 at Napoli, showing defensive vulnerability against quality opposition. If Lille's remaining attackers click into form and Bodo/Glimt's absentees thin the midfield, the gap between these sides could close faster than the probabilities suggest.

Pre-match probabilities

Bodo/Glimt

52.5%

Draw

23.5%

Lille

24%

Recent form · per game, last 8

The table · League Phase

• Ligue 1Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 UTC
  RennesvsLille

  Lille's defensive solidity challenges Rennes' high-scoring chaos

• Ligue 1Fri 30 Oct, 20:05 UTC
  Lille1–0Lens

  Lille hold home edge but Lens bring serious firepower

• Ligue 1Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 UTC
  Monaco1–1Lille

  Monaco hold the edge, but their xG tells a different story

• UEFA Champions LeagueWed 21 Oct, 16:45 UTC
  Lille2–4Galatasaray

  Desperate rivals meet with nothing but losses behind them