UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC

Baku Olympic Stadium

Sabah FA

1–2

Borussia Dortmund

The result

10'Goal: Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund)
39'Goal: Aden McCarthy (Sabah FA)
53'Goal: Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund)

1.53xG3.75

13Shots22

4On target9

45%Possession55%

4Corners9

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Thu 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC

Dortmund heavily favoured despite Sabah's deceptive recent form

The pre-match probabilities leave little room for debate — Borussia Dortmund are given a 70.5% chance of winning, with Sabah FA allocated just 12.5%. On the surface, Sabah's recent eight-match record looks impressive (6W-1D-1L), but the underlying numbers expose the illusion: their xG against (2.14 per game) dramatically outpaces their xG for (1.35), meaning they have been conceding far more high-quality chances than they create, and those results are flattered by five clean sheets that could easily not have been. Dortmund, by contrast, show a healthier xG profile — 1.65 for versus 0.96 against — indicating their performances genuinely support their results. The one clear tension worth noting is that Dortmund arrive on the back of a Champions League loss to Bodø/Glimt and a Bundesliga draw with Werder Bremen, so their recent momentum has softened slightly.

Dortmund clearly favoured on most signals

Key factors

Pre-match probabilities give Dortmund 70.5% — an overwhelming baseline that dominates the read
Sabah's xG against (2.14/g) towers over their xG for (1.35/g), signalling their W-D-W-W-W run is fragile and chance-quality-driven
Dortmund's xG for (1.65) versus xG against (0.96) shows genuine attacking and defensive substance behind their 6W-1D-1L stretch
Sabah's only Champions League defeat in this eight-match window was a 0-4 hammering at Manchester United — the step-up in class is significant
Dortmund average 17.7 shots per game versus Sabah's 23/g, but Sabah's high shot count comes predominantly in Premyer Liqa competition, a far weaker level
Both teams are level on 3 points from 2 UCL games, giving Dortmund a meaningful incentive to push for a home-territory result

What could change it

Dortmund's back-to-back UCL loss and Bundesliga draw introduce a thread of doubt about current form, and if their key attackers are missing or rested, Sabah's disciplined defensive structure — five clean sheets in eight — could keep this closer than the 70.5% probability implies. API-Football's model notably leans toward Sabah FA or draw, which is the one dissenting voice worth keeping in the peripheral view.