UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC

Chobani Stadium

Fenerbahçe

2–2

Slavia Praha

The result

4'Goal: Oğuz Aydın (Fenerbahçe)
11'Goal: Mason Greenwood (Fenerbahçe)
15'Goal: Lukáš Provod (Slavia Praha)
90'Goal: Pavel Kacor (Slavia Praha)

1.12xG1.54

15Shots15

4On target4

49%Possession51%

3Corners5

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Wed 14 Oct, 00:58 UTC

Fenerbahçe's fortress form against Slavia's UCL struggles

The data builds a coherent picture in Fenerbahçe's favour across multiple layers. At home in the Champions League, Fenerbahçe carry a season record of WDWWDWD — conceding just 0.6 per game and keeping 3 clean sheets in this competition — while Slavia arrive having lost both of their UCL outings so far, conceding 2.5 goals per game in the competition and yet to register a single clean sheet. The underlying recent form reinforces this: Fenerbahçe's last eight matches show 0.5 goals conceded per game and five clean sheets, with an xG against of just 0.99 — suggesting the defensive solidity is genuinely earned rather than lucky. Slavia's own recent form is respectable in Czech football but their two UCL losses, including a 0-2 away defeat to Sabah FA just seven days ago, raise real questions about their readiness at this level.

Home side has a clear statistical edge

Key factors

Fenerbahçe have conceded just 0.5 goals per game across their last 8 matches, keeping 5 clean sheets — a historically tight defensive stretch.
Slavia Praha's xG against (1.08 per game in recent form) is higher than Fenerbahçe's xG for (1.92), but their UCL-specific numbers are far worse: 2.5 goals conceded per game in this competition.
Fenerbahçe's UCL season form reads WDWWDWD with only 0.6 goals conceded per game — a strong home-competition baseline across 7 results.
Slavia have 0 points from 2 UCL games and a goal difference of -3, pointing to a side that has not found their footing at Champions League level this season.
API-Football's model leans Fenerbahçe, citing 'Win or draw' — consistent with the directional read from the form data.
Fenerbahçe's shots on target average (6.1 per game) is notably higher than Slavia's (5.0), suggesting a more dangerous attacking output despite Slavia generating slightly more total shots (15.8 vs 14.7).

What could change it

Slavia's broader recent form — six wins from eight across all competitions with an xG for of 1.76 per game — shows they are not a toothless side, and Fenerbahçe did drop points at home to Beşiktaş (1-2) and draw with Roma (1-1) recently. If Slavia can replicate their Czech-league intensity rather than their passive UCL displays, the match could tighten considerably.