UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

Real Madrid

4–1

RB Leipzig

The result

43'Goal: Bernardo Silva (Real Madrid)
52'Goal: Arda Güler (Real Madrid)
83'Goal: Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
85'Goal: Tidiam Gomis (RB Leipzig)
87'Goal: Yan Diomande (Real Madrid)

3.13xG1.51

18Shots11

11On target6

65%Possession35%

7Corners1

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sun 18 Oct, 23:59 UTC

Real Madrid heavily favoured; Leipzig's inconsistency tells the story

The pre-match probabilities are emphatic — Real Madrid sit at 75.3% to win, with Leipzig given just 10.2%. That lopsided read is well supported by the underlying numbers: Madrid have won 6 of their last 8, averaging 2.38 goals scored against 1.38 conceded, while Leipzig arrive off a 1-6 thrashing at Bayern München just four days ago and carry a patchy 4W-4L record across their last 8. Madrid's Champions League season form reads 'WW' with 3.0 goals per game, whereas Leipzig's reads 'LW' with a negative goal difference and only 3 points from 2 games — they sit 13 places below Madrid in the standings. The one genuine counterpoint is that Leipzig's xG numbers (2.22 for, 2.11 against) suggest they can generate and concede in volume, which Madrid's own open style — both teams scored in 75% of their last 8 — could accommodate.

Home side holds a commanding edge

Key factors

Pre-match probabilities give Real Madrid 75.3% — one of the strongest home favourites readings you'll see in Champions League group play.
Madrid's recent form is 6W-2L across all competitions, scoring 2.38 goals per game and recording a positive xG margin of 1.83 for vs 1.20 against.
Leipzig just conceded 6 at Bayern München (Oct 17) and have lost 4 of their last 8, with an away UCL loss to Como (1-4) also on the sheet — road form is a real concern.
Leipzig's Champions League season stats show just 1.0 goals scored per game with a -2 goal difference, directly contrasting Madrid's 3.0 scored and +2 GD in the same competition.
Madrid are carrying three notable absentees (Asencio — broken leg, Mendy — hip, Rodrygo — knee), while Leipzig are missing Baumgartner, Guiu, and Ouedraogo — but Madrid's squad depth at this level absorbs injuries more comfortably.
API-Football's model also leans Real Madrid, adding a second independent directional signal alongside the pre-match probabilities.

What could change it

Leipzig's xG numbers (2.22 for across last 8) show they are capable of creating chances even against strong opposition, and Madrid's both-teams-scored rate of 75% means a clean-sheet victory is not their typical mode — a spirited Leipzig performance keeping the scoreline close cannot be fully ruled out. Madrid's three injury absences, particularly Rodrygo's creativity from wide areas, could slightly blunt the attacking edge the probabilities assume.