Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart

The result

• 29'Goal: Deniz Undav (VfB Stuttgart)
• 64'Own goal: Sandro Cruz (VfB Stuttgart)
• 90'Goal: Ermedin Demirović (VfB Stuttgart)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sun 11 Oct, 13:17 UTC

Stuttgart's class dwarfs Slovan in every measurable dimension

The pre-match probabilities are about as one-sided as it gets at this level, handing Stuttgart a 73.5% chance of winning with Slovan sitting at just 10.7%. The underlying form data does nothing to challenge that picture — in fact, it reinforces it. Stuttgart are averaging 16 shots per game with 5.5 on target, while Slovan manage just 9 shots and 4 on target per game. Perhaps most telling is the possession split: Slovan average just 28% of the ball across their last 8 matches, which will make it extraordinarily difficult to threaten a Stuttgart side that keeps the ball 54% of the time and has won 5 of their last 8. The Champions League standing tells its own story — Stuttgart sit 6th with 3 points from 1 game; Slovan are 35th with 0 points and a goal difference of -5.

Stuttgart strongly favoured across all signals

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities give Stuttgart a dominant 73.5% win probability against Slovan's 10.7% — one of the sharpest spreads possible in elite club competition
• Slovan were beaten 1-6 by PSG in their last Champions League outing, contributing to a -5 goal difference after just one group game
• Stuttgart's shot volume is almost double Slovan's: 16 per game vs 9, with Stuttgart also leading on shots on target (5.5 vs 4)
• Slovan average just 28% possession across recent matches — against Stuttgart's 54% — suggesting a deeply defensive, reactive setup that will be under constant pressure
• Stuttgart have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 8 matches despite conceding a concerning xG of 2.59 against, indicating some defensive vulnerability that may open the match up
• API-Football's model leans Stuttgart, categorising the expected outcome as a win or draw for the German side

What could change it

Stuttgart's xG against figure of 2.59 per game across their last 8 suggests their defence has been somewhat porous despite the clean sheet numbers — if Slovan can absorb early pressure and land a counter on the break, the 15.8% draw probability is not mathematically trivial. Slovan's competition form line of WDWWDWL in the Champions League this season also hints at some capacity to grind results, though that record includes earlier, arguably easier opposition.

Pre-match probabilities

Slovan Bratislava

10.7%

Draw

15.8%

VfB Stuttgart

73.5%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 1

• 2025-01-21Slovan Bratislava1–3VfB Stuttgart

The table · UEFA Champions League

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  AS Roma4–0Slovan Bratislava

  Roma heavily favoured, but their UCL form tells a messier story

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  VfB Stuttgart1–1Atletico Madrid

  Stuttgart's form screams, but Atletico's quality keeps this tight

• UEFA Champions LeagueWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  Bayern München2–2Arsenal

  Bayern's xG machine meets Arsenal's disciplined defensive block

• UEFA Champions LeagueWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  Aston Villa3–1Viking

  Villa's Champions League form dwarfs Viking's, but xG tells a nuanced story