Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

The APEX preview · Sun 4 Oct, 12:43 UTC

Atletico's firepower dwarfs Alaves across every key metric

The pre-match probabilities give Atletico Madrid a commanding 51.2% chance of winning, with Alaves sitting at just 23.1% — and the underlying form data does little to challenge that gap. Atletico arrive averaging 16.6 shots per game with 6 on target, against Alaves' 10.7 shots and a modest 2 on target per game. Atletico's xG of 1.73 for versus 1.22 against reflects genuine attacking superiority, while Alaves' xG of 1.03 for tells you their goals-per-game figure of 1.5 is running slightly ahead of what the underlying chances justify. Sitting 2nd in La Liga with 16 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +9, Atletico are operating as a top-tier side right now — the data and the probabilities are pointing in the same direction.

Away side clearly favoured across multiple signals

Key factors

• Atletico's shot volume is 55% higher than Alaves' — 16.6 per game versus 10.7 — and they put 6 on target compared to Alaves' 2, a massive quality gap in chance creation
• Atletico's xG for (1.73) comfortably outstrips Alaves' xG against (0.9), suggesting Atletico's attack is better than Alaves' defence can comfortably handle
• Alaves' own xG for of 1.03 is notably below their actual goals average of 1.5, meaning their recent scoring form has an element of over-performance relative to chances created
• Atletico have gone 3+ goals in 88% of their last 8 matches — a striking frequency — while Alaves have conceded in only 50% of games, so that particular tension is worth watching
• Atletico hold 55% average possession versus Alaves' 42%, reinforcing territorial dominance that Alaves will need to overcome on home soil at Mendizorrotza
• API-Football's model also leans Atletico, supporting a 'win or draw' lean that aligns with the pre-match probabilities showing only a 23.1% chance for the home side

What could change it

Alaves have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 8 and their xG against of 0.9 shows they are not simply open — if they sit deep and frustrate, the 25.6% draw probability is not negligible. Atletico have also dropped two of their last 8 matches, including a heavy 0-3 loss at Athletic Club, proving they are not infallible away from home even if Mendizorrotza flips the home/away dynamic here.

Pre-match probabilities

Alaves

23.1%

Draw

25.6%

Atletico Madrid

51.2%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-01-18Atletico Madrid1–0Alaves
• 2025-08-30Alaves1–1Atletico Madrid
• 2025-05-03Alaves0–0Atletico Madrid
• 2024-11-23Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
• 2024-04-21Alaves2–0Atletico Madrid

The table · La Liga