Como vs AS Roma

The APEX preview · Mon 5 Oct, 15:07 UTC

Roma top the table but Como's form makes this genuinely open

The pre-match probabilities are about as even as it gets — Como at 36.9%, Roma at 36.2%, with a draw at 26.9% — which tells you the forecasters see this as a genuine coin-flip despite Roma sitting top of Serie A with 13 points from 5 games. What makes that interesting is that both sides' underlying numbers actually support the tightness: Roma's xG of 2.56 for and 1.11 against over their last 8 is the stronger attacking profile, but Como have been the more dominant ball-players at 60% possession versus Roma's 58%, and their xG of 1.89 for against just 1.53 against shows they create more than they concede at a healthy rate too. Roma's season record of 2.8 goals per game and 3 clean sheets from 5 Serie A outings is the standout number in the data, but Como have won 4 of their last 8 across all competitions and beaten Roma at home in the most recent head-to-head, so there is no meaningful momentum gap between the sides.

Match looks genuinely tight — no clear directional lean

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities split almost evenly: Como 36.9%, Roma 36.2%, draw 26.9% — one of the closest three-way splits possible
• Roma's xG for over the last 8 matches (2.56) is notably higher than Como's (1.89), suggesting Roma generate the sharper attacking threat on underlying numbers
• Roma's xG against (1.11) is also considerably tighter than Como's (1.53), pointing to a more defensively structured side in recent weeks
• Como hold 60% possession per game in their last 8 — higher than Roma's 58% — and average 21.8 shots per game versus Roma's 18.5, indicating Como dominate the physical territory even if Roma's shot quality is better
• Roma lead Serie A with 13 points from 5 games and a GD of +11, including 3 clean sheets this season; Como sit 8th with 10 points from 5 but no clean sheets in league play
• API-Football's model leans toward Roma or a draw, broadly consistent with the near-parity in the pre-match probabilities

What could change it

Como lost their most recent Serie A outing 2-0 away at Frosinone, showing they are not immune to being cut open on the break — a Roma side averaging 2.56 xG per game could exploit that same vulnerability. Conversely, Roma's xG against of 1.11 relies on a defensive shape that drew 2-2 with Inter last time out, suggesting they can still be breached by quality opposition like Como.

Pre-match probabilities

Como

36.9%

Draw

26.9%

AS Roma

36.2%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 4

• 2026-03-15Como2–1AS Roma
• 2025-12-15AS Roma1–0Como
• 2025-03-02AS Roma2–1Como
• 2024-12-15Como2–0AS Roma

The table · Serie A