Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

The result

• 14'Goal: Derry Lionel Scherhant (SC Freiburg)
• 19'Goal: Ibrahim Maza (Bayer Leverkusen)
• 76'Goal: Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 17 Oct, 23:52 UTC

Leverkusen favoured at home, but Freiburg arrive top of the table

The pre-match probabilities give Bayer Leverkusen a 56.7% chance of winning at home, making them the clear statistical favourite — but the underlying form picture is more nuanced than that headline number suggests. Freiburg arrive as Bundesliga leaders on 13 points from 5 games with a +10 goal difference, and their recent eight-match run of 7W-1D-0L is arguably the sharpest form sequence in this fixture. The tension here is real: Leverkusen's home advantage and pre-match probability lean is solid, yet Freiburg's xG numbers (1.84 for, 1.11 against over eight games) show they are not just winning on fortune — they are generating and limiting chances at a credible rate. Leverkusen, for their part, have been dominant in attack (xG 2.81 for, just 1.14 against) and have kept five clean sheets in their last eight, so the defensive structure is genuine.

Home side has the edge, but Freiburg's form and table position keep this genuinely competitive

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities place Leverkusen at 56.7% — a meaningful home edge, with the draw (22.1%) and Freiburg win (21.2%) nearly level as the alternative outcomes.
• Freiburg sit 1st in the Bundesliga on 13 points from 5 games with a +10 goal difference, three points and four GD clear of Leverkusen (4th, 10 pts, +6 GD) — a live league-table edge for the visitors.
• Leverkusen's last eight matches show xG 2.81 for and just 1.14 against, backed by five clean sheets — one of the cleaner defensive profiles in this data set.
• Freiburg's recent xG for (1.84) is notably lower than Leverkusen's, suggesting their goal output (3.13 per game) has outrun their underlying chance creation slightly, whereas Leverkusen's 3.0 goals per game is more tightly supported by their xG.
• Leverkusen carry a notable injury list — Ben Seghir, Doue, Eichhorn, Kofane, Terrier, and Culbreath all sidelined — which could meaningfully thin their attacking and midfield options at a key home fixture.
• Freiburg also lose Suzuki to suspension, but their overall squad availability looks less disrupted than Leverkusen's six absentees.

What could change it

Leverkusen's six injury absentees represent a genuine wildcard — if key creative or defensive players are among those missing, the 56.7% home probability may overstate their actual strength on the day. Equally, Freiburg's recent xG (1.84 per game) suggests their prolific scoring run carries some positive variance that may not fully sustain against Leverkusen's defensively robust structure.

Pre-match probabilities

Bayer Leverkusen

56.7%

Draw

22.1%

SC Freiburg

21.2%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-03-07SC Freiburg3–3Bayer Leverkusen
• 2025-10-26Bayer Leverkusen2–0SC Freiburg
• 2025-05-04SC Freiburg2–2Bayer Leverkusen
• 2024-12-21Bayer Leverkusen5–1SC Freiburg
• 2024-03-17SC Freiburg2–3Bayer Leverkusen

The table · Bundesliga

• BundesligaSun 25 Oct, 16:30 UTC
  SC FreiburgvsBayern München

  Bayern's xG machine dwarfs Freiburg, but the hosts surprise

• BundesligaSat 31 Oct, 17:30 UTC
  Bayern MünchenvsBorussia Dortmund

  Bayern's xG machine faces Dortmund's stubborn defensive structure

• BundesligaSat 24 Oct, 16:30 UTC
  Borussia Dortmund1–0Eintracht Frankfurt

  Dortmund's xG dominance makes a strong case at home

• BundesligaFri 9 Oct, 18:30 UTC
  Borussia Dortmund2–2Werder Bremen

  Dortmund's form and position make them heavy favourites at home