BundesligaPreview

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC

Europa-Park Stadion

SC Freiburg

Bayern München

The APEX preview · Tue 20 Oct, 00:58 UTC

Bayern's xG machine dwarfs Freiburg, but the hosts surprise

The pre-match probabilities are emphatic — Bayern München sit at 69% to win, with Freiburg given just 14.4% — and the underlying numbers broadly back that up. Bayern are averaging 3.51 xG per game over their last eight matches while conceding only 0.56 xG, a defensive and attacking profile that is genuinely elite. Freiburg, however, are a far more awkward opponent than their 14.4% probability suggests on the surface: six wins in their last eight, 2.75 goals per game scored, and a solid 55% average possession tell a story of a side in real form. The tension here is that Freiburg's own xG of 1.94 per game is decent but still dwarfed by Bayern's 3.51, so the probabilities and the process data largely agree — Bayern are the significantly stronger force right now.

Bayern München strongly favoured to win

Key factors

Bayern's recent xG of 3.51 for vs 0.56 against is the standout number in this dataset — an extraordinary gap that fully justifies the 69% pre-match probability
Freiburg have won 6 of their last 8 across all competitions, scoring 2.75 goals per game, so they arrive in genuine form — not a pushover
Bayern generate 25 shots per game (8 on target) versus Freiburg's 17 (5.4 on target) — a clear volume edge for the visitors
Freiburg's season Bundesliga stats show 2.5 goals scored per game against just 1.0 conceded, ranking them 3rd with 13 points — they are a top-half side in good shape
Bayern lead the Bundesliga at rank 1, +17 goal difference in 6 games, averaging 3.7 goals per game in the season — the league data and recent form tell the same story
API-Football's model also leans Bayern, reinforcing what the probabilities and xG numbers already indicate

What could change it

Freiburg's 6W-1D-1L run is real and their home environment at Europa-Park Stadion adds context — the 14.4% probability is low, but not absurd given Bayern's xG dominance. Bayern's two recent draws (including a 3-3 at Viking in the Champions League) show they are not completely airtight, and Freiburg's attack producing 2.75 goals per game could test a defence that has conceded in 63% of recent matches.