UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Viking vs Bayern München

Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SR-Bank Arena

Viking

3–3

Bayern München

The result

2'Goal: Gianni Stensness (Viking)
38'Goal: Peter Christiansen (Viking)
54'Penalty: Harry Kane (Bayern München)
60'Goal: Harry Kane (Bayern München)
71'Goal: Luis Díaz (Bayern München)
73'Red card: Michael Olise (Bayern München)
90'Goal: Herman Haugen (Viking)

0.64xG3.57

8Shots25

5On target8

34%Possession66%

5Corners15

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Fri 9 Oct, 01:49 UTC

Bayern's dominance meets Viking's surprising recent form

The pre-match probabilities are about as one-sided as it gets — Bayern München sit at 87.3% to win, with Viking given just 4.5%. What makes this interesting is that Viking's underlying numbers aren't a disaster: across their last 8 matches they've averaged 2.95 xG for and only 0.73 against, suggesting they genuinely create and suppress chances in their domestic environment. The catch is that their only Champions League test in this window was a 1-3 loss away at Stuttgart, which quickly reframes the context. Bayern, meanwhile, are generating 3.13 xG per game with only 0.57 conceded, and their 5-0 demolition of Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League shows they translate that quality at this level too.

Bayern München strongly favoured to win

Key factors

Pre-match probabilities give Bayern a massive 87.3% win probability — one of the strongest single-signal reads possible in football analytics.
Bayern's xG numbers (3.13 for / 0.57 against across last 8) are elite-level; their average of 3.63 goals scored per game in that same window confirms the underlying quality is converting.
Viking's recent xG of 2.95 for looks healthy, but their entire sample is heavily skewed by Eliteserien and cup matches — their one Champions League appearance ended in a 1-3 loss away to Stuttgart.
Bayern's Champions League season stat is blunt: 5 goals for, 0 against, clean sheet, rank 2 — directly comparable competition context against Viking's 0 points and -2 goal difference from 1 played.
Viking's possession average of 47% will almost certainly drop sharply against Bayern's 68% possession dominance — a structural mismatch that compounds the quality gap.
API-Football's model also leans Bayern, adding a secondary directional signal that aligns with the pre-match probability baseline.

What could change it

Viking's home crowd at Lyse Arena and a run of 6 wins from 8 — including an 8-1 against Kristiansund — shows they can fire on all cylinders in familiar surroundings, and their xG numbers are not nothing. However, the quality leap from Eliteserien to a Bayern side averaging 3.63 goals per game and conceding a combined 0.57 xG per game over 8 matches is severe enough that domestic form provides only limited comfort here.