UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Maradona Stadium

Napoli

4–3

Bodo/Glimt

The result

1'Goal: Matteo Politano (Napoli)
27'Goal: Jens Petter Hauge (Bodo/Glimt)
41'Goal: Scott McTominay (Napoli)
62'Goal: Andreas Helmersen (Bodo/Glimt)
75'Goal: Scott McTominay (Napoli)
88'Own goal: Odin Luras Bjortuft (Napoli)
90+4'Goal: Sondre Fet (Bodo/Glimt)

1.57xG2.69

17Shots15

8On target6

43%Possession57%

2Corners5

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Fri 16 Oct, 14:53 UTC

Napoli's xG deficit contradicts their 59.5% home probability

The pre-match probabilities hand Napoli a clear 59.5% chance of winning at the Maradona, yet their underlying numbers tell a more complicated story. Over their last 8 matches, Napoli are generating just 1.68 xG per game while conceding 1.93 — meaning they've been outplayed in expected quality terms despite the home-favourite label. Bodo/Glimt, by contrast, are producing 2.05 xG for against only 0.99 against across the same window, a genuinely impressive defensive xG figure that suggests their 6W-0D-2L run is not just noise. The real tension here is that a Norwegian side arriving with better underlying numbers is still priced as a significant underdog at 18.9%.

Data softens Napoli's favourite status; match looks tighter than probabilities suggest

Key factors

Napoli's xG against (1.93 per game) exceeds their xG for (1.68) over the last 8 — they've been the weaker side in expected quality terms despite home advantage.
Bodo/Glimt's xG differential is strongly positive: 2.05 for vs 0.99 against, suggesting their recent dominance is structurally sound, not just fortunate.
Napoli's Champions League season form reads 'LL' with 0 points from 2 games and 0.5 goals scored per game on average — their UCL performances specifically have been poor.
Bodo/Glimt sit at rank 24 with 3 points from 2 UCL games, including a notable 1-0 win over Borussia Dortmund on October 14, showing they can compete at this level.
Napoli's last 8 includes 4 defeats — losses to Villarreal (1-3), Arsenal (0-1), Inter (2-3), and Como (1-2) — pointing to real vulnerability against quality opposition.
Bodo/Glimt average 18.3 shots per game with 57% possession, considerably more aggressive in build-up than Napoli's 13 shots per game at 49% possession.

What could change it

Home advantage at the Maradona is a real factor and could lift Napoli beyond what their recent xG numbers suggest — crowd pressure in European nights there is historically significant. Additionally, Bodo/Glimt's two losses include a 0-5 thrashing by Bayern München, a reminder that the step up against elite home sides can expose them.