Napoli vs AS Roma

The result

• 28'Goal: Frank Anguissa (Napoli)
• 48'Goal: Scott McTominay (Napoli)
• 69'Goal: Matias Soule (AS Roma)
• 74'Goal: Leonardo Balerdi (AS Roma)
• 83'Goal: Scott McTominay (Napoli)
• 89'Goal: Leonardo Balerdi (AS Roma)
• 90'Red card: Massimiliano Allegri (Napoli)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Mon 19 Oct, 13:47 UTC

Roma's form and xG make them genuine favourites in Naples

The pre-match probabilities already tip AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 38.6%, with Napoli at only 33.7% despite home advantage — an unusual inversion that the underlying data fully supports. Roma's recent xG picture is compelling: 1.93 generated for versus just 1.06 conceded across their last eight matches, while Napoli's xG-for sits at 1.74 but their results (2W-5L-1D) paint a team that has been underperforming those numbers badly. Serie A season stats sharpen the contrast further — Roma are averaging 2.3 goals per game with a +13 goal difference from rank 3, whereas Napoli sit 9th with just 1.4 per game. All the major signals point the same direction: Roma are the form side, the better defensive unit, and the pre-match favourite.

Away side Roma hold the analytical edge

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities give AS Roma 38.6% — higher than Napoli's 33.7% despite Napoli being at home, signalling a genuine away-side edge
• Roma's xG conceded (1.06 per game across last 8) is well below Napoli's xG scored (1.74), suggesting Roma's defence has the tools to limit Napoli even when the home side creates
• Napoli's actual results (2W-5L-1D in last 8) lag significantly behind their xG output, indicating a team struggling to convert chances and vulnerable to further dropped points
• Roma have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8 matches and 5 across the Serie A season — the best defensive record in this fixture on current evidence
• Roma's Serie A season average of 2.3 goals scored per game against a Napoli defence conceding 1.38 per game in recent form creates a favourable attacking context for the visitors
• API-Football's model also leans Roma, reinforcing what the probabilities and form data already show

What could change it

Napoli's xG numbers (1.74 for, 1.66 against) are more balanced than their results suggest, meaning a reversion to form could catch Roma off guard at the Maradona — home environments have a habit of compressing what the data predicts. The Buongiorno injury is worth monitoring for Napoli's defensive structure, though Roma are also missing Bah, so neither side is at full strength at the back.

Pre-match probabilities

Napoli

33.7%

Draw

27.7%

AS Roma

38.6%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-02-15Napoli2–2AS Roma
• 2025-11-30AS Roma0–1Napoli
• 2025-02-02AS Roma1–1Napoli
• 2024-11-24Napoli1–0AS Roma
• 2024-04-28Napoli2–2AS Roma

The table · Serie A

• Serie ATue 27 Oct, 19:45 UTC
  AS RomavsCagliari

  Roma's form and xG edge make a compelling case at home

• Serie ASun 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC
  JuventusvsNapoli

  Two mid-table sides level on points, signals point narrow

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  AS Roma4–0Slovan Bratislava

  Roma heavily favoured, but their UCL form tells a messier story

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  Napoli4–3Bodo/Glimt

  Napoli's xG deficit contradicts their 59.5% home probability