AS Roma vs Cagliari

The APEX preview · Thu 22 Oct, 12:15 UTC

Roma's form and xG edge make a compelling case at home

The pre-match probabilities hand Roma a dominant 70.1% chance of winning, and the underlying numbers largely agree. Roma's recent xG of 1.67 for versus 1.22 against contrasts sharply with Cagliari's alarming 1.08 for versus 2.06 against — meaning Cagliari have been conceding nearly twice the quality of chances they create. Roma's Serie A season stats further reinforce this picture: 2.3 goals scored per game, 0.4 conceded, and five clean sheets in seven league matches. Cagliari arrive on the back of a 0-4 thrashing at Monza, generating only 9 shots per game and 3.2 on target — both figures dwarfed by Roma's 15.8 shots and 5.7 on target per game.

Home side has a clear edge

Key factors

• Roma's pre-match win probability stands at 70.1%, with the draw at 19.4% — Cagliari's win probability is just 10.5%
• Roma's xG for (1.67) versus Cagliari's xG against (2.06) point in the same direction: Roma should be generating high-quality chances against a porous defensive unit
• Roma average 15.8 shots per game with 5.7 on target; Cagliari manage only 9 shots and 3.2 on target — a gap that signals sustained territorial dominance for the home side
• Roma's Serie A season record shows 2.3 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game across 7 matches, with 5 clean sheets — they are the sharper defensive unit by a significant margin
• Cagliari's xG against (2.06 per game in recent form) is the single most alarming figure here — opponents have been creating very high-quality chances against them consistently
• API-Football's model also leans Roma, supporting the dominant signal across multiple independent data sources

What could change it

Cagliari have shown they can spring surprises — a draw against Juventus and wins at Atalanta and Udinese sit in their recent record, so they are not without quality on their day. Roma's sole recent loss came against Real Madrid in the Champions League, and playing across multiple competitions introduces fatigue as a variable worth watching.

Pre-match probabilities

AS Roma

70.1%

Draw

19.4%

Cagliari

10.5%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-02-09AS Roma2–0Cagliari
• 2025-12-07Cagliari1–0AS Roma
• 2025-03-16AS Roma1–0Cagliari
• 2024-08-18Cagliari0–0AS Roma
• 2024-02-05AS Roma4–0Cagliari

The table · Serie A

• Serie ASat 24 Oct, 16:00 UTC
  Napoli3–3AS Roma

  Roma's form and xG make them genuine favourites in Naples

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  AS Roma4–0Slovan Bratislava

  Roma heavily favoured, but their UCL form tells a messier story

• UEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  AS Roma3–4Real Madrid

  Real Madrid's xG and form edge meets a Roma side full of goals

• Serie ASun 11 Oct, 10:30 UTC
  Como0–0AS Roma

  Roma top the table but Como's form makes this genuinely open