Premier LeagueFull time

Chelsea vs Tottenham

Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC

Stamford Bridge

Chelsea

0–2

Tottenham

The result

77'Own goal: Mike Penders (Tottenham)
80'Red card: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
87'Goal: Mathys Tel (Tottenham)

0.55xG0.8

7Shots15

4On target4

32%Possession68%

4Corners6

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Tue 20 Oct, 00:57 UTC

Chelsea's form machine meets Tottenham's Premier League struggles

The pre-match probabilities give Chelsea a 54.3% chance of winning at Stamford Bridge, and the underlying data lines up comfortably with that lean. Chelsea are in genuine form — 5 wins from their last 8, scoring 2.75 goals per game, and sitting 4th in the Premier League with a +4 goal difference. Tottenham, by contrast, have won just 2 of their last 8 across all competitions, averaging only 1.5 goals per game, and their Premier League-only numbers are stark: 0.5 goals scored per game against 1.5 conceded, with a -4 goal difference from 16th place. The interesting detail is that Tottenham's xG for sits at just 1.06 per game — they're not being unlucky, they're simply not generating enough threat to trouble a side playing with Chelsea's current momentum.

Chelsea hold a clear edge at home

Key factors

Chelsea's 54.3% pre-match win probability is backed by real form — 5W-1D-2L across their last 8, scoring 2.75 goals per game
Tottenham's Premier League season reads LLDDLD with just 0.5 goals scored per game, pointing to a team genuinely short of attacking output
Tottenham's xG for across recent matches sits at only 1.06 per game — the numbers suggest their struggles are structural, not merely unlucky
Chelsea are ranked 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Tottenham are 16th on 6 points — a 7-point gap that reflects the current quality gap between the sides
75% of Chelsea's last 8 matches have produced 3 or more goals, suggesting their games tend to open up — relevant in a derby context
API-Football's model also leans Chelsea as winner, adding a secondary directional signal in the same direction as the pre-match probabilities

What could change it

Derby matches at Stamford Bridge can compress the form gap — the most recent H2H saw Tottenham win 2-1, and Chelsea did suffer a 0-3 loss at Brentford as recently as September, showing they can be vulnerable on the road or in off days. If Tottenham can keep the game tight and low-scoring, their two recent clean sheets show they are capable of defending, which could drag this toward the 23.1% draw territory.