Premier LeaguePreview

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC

Selhurst Park

Crystal Palace

Newcastle

The APEX preview · Wed 21 Oct, 12:11 UTC

Newcastle favoured but their underlying numbers tell a messier story

The pre-match probabilities give Newcastle a 40.2% chance of winning at Selhurst Park, making them the clear favourite despite being the away side. That's the headline, but the supporting data muddies it considerably. Newcastle's recent xG of just 0.72 per game is strikingly low for a team priced as favourites — they're generating far less than their shot volume of 17.3 per game might suggest, implying low-quality chances. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are genuinely poor defensively (conceding at an xG rate of 2.07 per game across their last eight) but at least carry some attacking unpredictability, as their 3+ goal involvement in 75% of recent matches shows. Both sides sit in the bottom half — Newcastle 11th on 8 points, Palace 14th on 7 — with neither commanding form.

Slight away lean, but signals conflict enough to keep this genuinely open

Key factors

Pre-match probabilities lean Newcastle (40.2%) over Crystal Palace (33.3%), with a draw at 26.5% — no outcome has a commanding majority
Newcastle's xG for is only 0.72 per game despite averaging 17.3 shots, suggesting their chances are consistently low quality and goals may be harder to come by than their volume implies
Crystal Palace's defensive xG against of 2.07 per game is the worst figure in this dataset, pointing to a back line that concedes high-quality opportunities regularly
Crystal Palace's season Premier League stats show them conceding 2.4 goals per game on average — the most porous defence of the two sides in league play specifically
Newcastle have lost three of their last four Premier League matches (including a 1-4 at Coventry and 0-1 at home to Aston Villa), which sits in tension with their status as pre-match favourites
API-Football's model leans Crystal Palace or draw, which at minimum signals the home result is not as remote as the pre-match probabilities alone imply

What could change it

Newcastle's shot volume (17.3 per game) does at least show they get into positions to threaten, and if the quality of chances improves on the day — or Palace's leaky defence gifts them easier opportunities — the pre-match probability edge for Newcastle could reassert itself convincingly. Palace's own form is inconsistent enough (a 0-5 loss at Brighton just a week prior) that a collapse at home remains very much on the table.