Denmark vs Portugal

The result

• 13'Goal: João Cancelo (Portugal)
• 23'Goal: Mikkel Damsgaard (Denmark)
• 25'Goal: Gonçalo Ramos (Portugal)
• 53'Goal: Rasmus Hojlund (Denmark)
• 67'Goal: Vitinha (Portugal)
• 87'Goal: Joao Felix (Portugal)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:50 UTC

Portugal's probabilities lead, but their xG tell a quieter story

The pre-match probabilities give Portugal a 46.6% chance of winning, making them clear favourites, with Denmark and the draw sharing an equal 26.7% each. What makes this interesting is the tension inside Portugal's recent form: they carry a 5W-2D-1L record across their last eight but their xG numbers actually run against them — generating only 1.1 xG per game while conceding 1.4. That means Portugal have been winning more clinical, low-volume performances rather than dominating games on process. Denmark, by contrast, produce 1.96 xG per game, suggesting their underlying attacking output is healthier than their 26.7% win probability might imply. The pre-match lean is clear, but the underlying process numbers are closer than the headline probabilities suggest.

Portugal have the edge, but the process numbers keep it genuinely open

Key factors

• Portugal's xG against (1.4 per game) exceeds their xG for (1.1) across the last eight — they're winning on efficiency, not volume, which is a fragile foundation
• Denmark generate 1.96 xG per game, a noticeably higher attacking output than Portugal's 1.1, and average 15.8 shots per game versus Portugal's 13.5
• Portugal have kept 3 clean sheets in their last eight and concede just 0.63 goals per game, so their defensive solidity has been the real driver of results
• Denmark's Nations League season form reads one loss (2-3 vs Norway, 0 points) while Portugal opened with a 1-0 win — the early group standings already separate them
• API-Football's model leans Portugal or draw, broadly consistent with the pre-match probability split that gives Portugal nearly half the win probability
• Denmark's last eight includes 75% of games seeing both teams score and 75% finishing with 3 or more goals — high-tempo, open matches are a consistent backdrop for this side

What could change it

Portugal's xG deficit is the main caveat — if Denmark's volume-based attacking approach clicks on the night, the efficiency gap that's been sustaining Portugal could close quickly. A Denmark side that averages 15.8 shots per game at home, in a group where their backs are already against the wall at 0 points, may push higher and harder than Portugal's recent opponents have.

Pre-match probabilities

Denmark

26.7%

Draw

26.7%

Portugal

46.6%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 3

• 2025-03-23Portugal5–2Denmark
• 2025-03-20Denmark1–0Portugal
• 2012-06-13Denmark2–3Portugal

The table · Group 4