UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Lask Linz vs Liverpool

Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC

Raiffeisen Arena

Lask Linz

3–6

Liverpool

The result

22'Goal: Ronald Araujo (Liverpool)
24'Goal: Bradley Barcola (Liverpool)
37'Goal: Bradley Barcola (Liverpool)
51'Goal: Jeremie Frimpong (Liverpool)
63'Goal: Robert Ljubicic (Lask Linz)
66'Goal: Bradley Barcola (Liverpool)
72'Goal: Lewis Koumas (Liverpool)
74'Goal: Florian Flecker (Lask Linz)
77'Goal: Florian Flecker (Lask Linz)

2.06xG3.36

12Shots26

4On target9

36%Possession64%

3Corners11

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 10 Oct, 12:52 UTC

Liverpool overwhelming favourites against a limited LASK side

The pre-match probabilities are about as one-sided as they get in European football — Liverpool at 76.3% versus LASK at just 9.1%. What makes this reading even cleaner is that the underlying form data broadly agrees. Liverpool have conceded only 0.75 goals per game across their last 8, kept 4 clean sheets, and their xG against (0.80) closely mirrors their actual results — suggesting the defensive solidity is genuine, not fortunate. LASK, meanwhile, have been prolific domestically (2.88 goals per game, 88% of matches hitting 3+), but their xG for sits at just 2.15 — meaning some of that output is noise — and their two losses in this run came in UCL and Austrian top-flight opposition, not lower-tier friendlies.

Liverpool strongly favoured to win

Key factors

Pre-match probabilities give Liverpool a commanding 76.3% win probability — the single strongest signal in the data.
Liverpool's defensive record over the last 8 games is exceptional: 0.75 goals conceded per game, 4 clean sheets, and an xG against of just 0.80 — all three figures pointing in the same direction.
LASK's xG for (2.15) is meaningfully lower than their actual goals scored (2.88 per game), suggesting their high-scoring run may be slightly overstated by underlying quality.
LASK's two defeats in their last 8 came specifically against UCL (AEK Athens, 0-1) and Bundesliga quality (Sturm Graz, 1-2) — the level Liverpool represent is significantly higher still.
Liverpool's season record in this UCL campaign reads 'W' from 1 game with a 2-1 result; LASK are already at 0 points from 1 played with a -1 goal difference, adding pressure on the home side.
API-Football's model leans toward Liverpool, framing it as a 'win or draw' outcome for the away side — consistent with the pre-match probability picture.

What could change it

LASK's recent domestic form is genuinely lively — 5 wins from 8, averaging 2.88 goals per game, and 60% possession — so if Liverpool show up at anything below full intensity, a home crowd and a high-tempo pressing game could create moments. Liverpool's last 8 also include 4 draws, hinting that on days when the engine isn't fully running, clean dominant wins are not guaranteed.