Liverpool vs Villarreal

The result

• 4'Goal: Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)
• 29'Goal: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez (Villarreal)
• 36'Goal: Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool)
• 45+2'Goal: Ronald Araujo (Liverpool)
• 65'Goal: Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool)
• 68'Goal: Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)
• 87'Goal: Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Thu 15 Oct, 11:54 UTC

Liverpool hold a commanding edge, but Villarreal can score

The pre-match probabilities are emphatic: Liverpool at 64.2% to win, Villarreal at just 15.4%. That baseline holds up well when you look at Liverpool's recent form — 5 wins in their last 8, a positive xG differential of 1.9 for against 1.61 against, and three clean sheets. The interesting tension, though, is that Villarreal's underlying numbers aren't a disaster: their xG for (1.9 per game) matches Liverpool's exactly, and both teams scored in 75% of Villarreal's last 8 matches, meaning the Yellow Submarine tend to find the net even when they're struggling for results. Liverpool's Champions League form this season (two wins, 8 goals scored in 2 games, currently 5th in the table on 6 points) adds another layer of confidence in the home side, but this doesn't look like a match where Villarreal simply fail to show up.

Home side has a clear but not overwhelming edge

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities give Liverpool a 64.2% win chance — a strong, clear lean toward the home side that the form data broadly supports.
• Liverpool's last 8 cross-competition record is 5W-2D-1L, with an xG of 1.9 for and 1.61 against — positive in both volume and quality.
• Villarreal have lost 5 of their last 8, but their xG for (1.9 per game) equals Liverpool's, suggesting their attacking output is better than their results show.
• Villarreal have kept zero clean sheets in their last 8 matches, and both teams scored in 75% of those games — they consistently give up goals.
• Liverpool sit 5th in the UCL League Stage on 6 points from 2 games with a +4 goal difference; Villarreal are 14th on 3 points with a +1 GD, reflecting a meaningful gap in European momentum.
• API-Football's model also leans toward Liverpool, categorising the outcome as 'Win or draw' for the home side, consistent with the pre-match probability picture.

What could change it

Liverpool's only loss in the last 8 came at home to Manchester City (0-3), showing they can be dismantled by elite pressing sides — Villarreal's possession-heavy style (60% average) means they won't be passive. If Villarreal replicate the attacking xG output they've shown recently and Liverpool have any defensive wobble like that City performance, a draw or a close result is genuinely on the table.

Pre-match probabilities

Liverpool

64.2%

Draw

20.4%

Villarreal

15.4%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 4

• 2022-05-03Villarreal2–3Liverpool
• 2022-04-27Liverpool2–0Villarreal
• 2016-05-05Liverpool3–0Villarreal
• 2016-04-28Villarreal1–0Liverpool

The table · UEFA Champions League

• Premier LeagueSun 25 Oct, 14:00 UTC
  LiverpoolvsBrighton

  Brighton's form credentials challenge Liverpool's home advantage

• Premier LeagueSun 1 Nov, 16:30 UTC
  LiverpoolvsArsenal

  Arsenal arrive at Anfield as the stronger side on paper

• Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 14:00 UTC
  Brentford1–2Liverpool

  Brentford's red-hot form makes this a genuine coin-flip

• UEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct, 16:45 UTC
  Lask Linz3–6Liverpool

  Liverpool overwhelming favourites against a limited LASK side