Levante vs Atletico Madrid

The APEX preview · Mon 26 Oct, 13:27 UTC

Atletico's defensive wall meets Levante's porous backline

The pre-match probabilities are emphatic: Atletico Madrid at 58.6% to win, with Levante managing only 19.7%. What makes this even more compelling is that the underlying form data doesn't just agree — it amplifies the gap. Atletico have won 7 of their last 8 across all competitions, conceding just 0.38 goals per game over that stretch and keeping 5 clean sheets. Levante, meanwhile, carry an xG against of 2.27 per game in their last 8, meaning opponents have been creating high-quality chances at will, and the actual goals conceded figure (2 against in 8 games) flatters them against that underlying pressure. The signals here are unusually aligned.

Atletico Madrid strongly favoured

Key factors

• Atletico Madrid's recent form reads 7W-1D-0L across last 8 matches in all competitions — one of the most dominant short-term records in the division
• Atletico have conceded just 0.38 goals per game in their last 8, with 5 clean sheets — a defensive structure that is genuinely elite over this sample
• Levante's xG against of 2.27 per game over the same window reveals they are absorbing serious pressure; the 1 clean sheet in 8 games reinforces that vulnerability
• Season standings confirm the class gap: Atletico sit 2nd with 25 points from 10 games and a +12 goal difference; Levante are 14th with 10 points and a -3 goal difference
• Levante's possession average of 41% in recent games means they are likely to be pinned back again here, which suits Atletico's structured counter-pressing style
• API-Football's model also leans Atletico, adding a secondary categorical signal in the same direction as the pre-match probabilities

What could change it

Levante have shown they can produce attacking moments — a 5-2 win over Real Betis and a 3-1 defeat of Athletic Club appear in their recent results — so a complete shutout is never guaranteed at home. Atletico's own xG for sits at only 1.48 per game despite the wins, suggesting their results have been tighter than the scorelines imply, and a motivated Levante side at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia could make this closer than the headline numbers suggest.

Pre-match probabilities

Levante

19.7%

Draw

21.7%

Atletico Madrid

58.6%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-01-31Levante0–0Atletico Madrid
• 2025-11-08Atletico Madrid3–1Levante
• 2023-01-18Levante0–2Atletico Madrid
• 2022-02-16Atletico Madrid0–1Levante
• 2021-10-28Levante2–2Atletico Madrid

The table · Primera División

• La LigaSat 24 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  Atletico Madrid1–0Deportivo La Coruna

  Atletico's form machine meets a Deportivo side running on empty

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  VfB Stuttgart1–1Atletico Madrid

  Stuttgart's form screams, but Atletico's quality keeps this tight

• UEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC
  Atletico Madrid2–0Manchester United

  Atletico's xG dominance clashes with United's European momentum

• La LigaSat 10 Oct, 14:15 UTC
  Alaves1–2Atletico Madrid

  Atletico's firepower dwarfs Alaves across every key metric