France vs Belgium

The result

• 35'Goal: Dodi Lukebakio (Belgium)
• 77'Goal: Désiré Doue (France)
• 81'Goal: Rayan Cherki (France)
• 88'Goal: Michael Olise (France)
• 90+1'Goal: Michael Olise (France)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Tue 29 Sept, 13:12 UTC

France's defensive wall meets Belgium's leaky finishing

The pre-match probabilities lean toward France, and the underlying data backs that reading emphatically. France's xG numbers over their last eight matches are staggering — 2.77 generated for versus just 0.31 conceded — while they've kept five clean sheets in that span. Belgium, by contrast, have allowed goals in 63% of their recent matches and their shots-on-target rate (5.4 per game) lags well behind France's 7.3. The one genuinely interesting wrinkle is that Belgium generate a decent volume of shots overall (20.8 per game) — but conversion has been a problem, and France's defensive shape has already smothered them once this international window, winning 1-0 just seven days ago.

France hold a clear structural edge

Key factors

• France's xG against over their last 8 games is a remarkable 0.31 — the data suggests opponents barely create clear chances against them
• Five clean sheets in eight matches for France; Belgium have managed only two in the same window
• Belgium allowed both teams to score in 63% of recent fixtures, pointing to defensive vulnerability that France's attack can exploit
• France already beat Belgium 1-0 on 2026-09-28 — this reverse fixture is essentially an immediate re-run with France holding the same structural advantages
• France sit top of Group A with 6 points from 2 games and a +2 GD; Belgium are second with 3 points — France control their own destiny and have no incentive to open up
• API-Football's model also leans toward France, categorising the outcome as 'Win or draw' for the home side

What could change it

Belgium's raw shot volume (20.8 per game) is the one number that keeps a shutout from being a certainty — if they find a way to convert quantity into quality, the match tightens quickly. France also showed vulnerability at the World Cup, conceding six to England, so a completely one-sided reading may underweight Belgium's capacity to create chaos in transition.

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-09-28Belgium0–1France
• 2024-10-14Belgium1–2France
• 2024-09-09France2–0Belgium
• 2024-07-01France1–0Belgium
• 2021-10-07Belgium2–3France

The table · League A - Group A

Earlier meetings on APEX

• Belgium 0–1 France2026-09-28

  APEX before kickoff: France's underlying numbers make a strong case for Les Bleus