Belgium vs Türkiye

The result

• 10'Goal: Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium)
• 59'Goal: Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium)
• 76'Goal: Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:51 UTC

Belgium's form looks sharper, but Türkiye's xG tells a different story

The pre-match picture leans Belgium's way — they sit top of Group 1 with 3 points after one game, while Türkiye are bottom with none. Belgium's recent form across all competitions reads 5W-2D-1L with 2.63 goals scored per game and only 0.88 conceded, making them look efficient at both ends. The interesting tension, though, is in the underlying creation numbers: Türkiye's xG for over the last 8 matches is 2.19 per game against Belgium's 1.84, meaning Türkiye are actually generating higher-quality chances — they're just not converting them at the same rate (1.38 goals per game vs Belgium's 2.63). That gap between Türkiye's xG and their actual goals suggests they've been unlucky or wasteful, and Belgium's clinical edge in front of goal has been masking a modest creative output by their own standards.

Belgium have the edge, but Türkiye's underlying numbers keep this from being clear-cut

Key factors

• Belgium are averaging 2.63 goals scored per game across their last 8, against only 0.88 conceded — a dominant offensive-defensive ratio
• Türkiye's xG for (2.19/g) exceeds Belgium's (1.84/g), yet Türkiye score at only 1.38 per game — a significant conversion gap that flatters Belgium's defensive numbers
• Belgium have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 8 matches; Türkiye have also kept 3, so both defences show some solidity despite the attacking differences
• Türkiye's shots on target average is notably lower at 5 per game vs Belgium's 7 per game, which helps explain the xG-to-goal conversion gap
• In Nations League play specifically, Belgium won 2-0 vs Italy on matchday 1 while Türkiye lost 0-1 at home to France — a clear early-season divergence in form at this level
• API-Football's model leans Belgium, consistent with the standings and goal-scoring data pointing in the same direction

What could change it

Türkiye's xG superiority (2.19 vs 1.84) is a genuine signal that their attacking threat is being underrated by the raw scorelines — if their conversion improves even modestly, they can trouble Belgium. Possession-wise Türkiye also edge it at 59% vs Belgium's 49%, meaning they control the ball enough to generate those chances consistently.

Recent form · per game, last 8

The table · Group 1