Italy vs Türkiye

The result

• 26'Goal: Gianluca Scamacca (Italy)
• 61'Goal: Aral Simsir (Türkiye)
• 64'Goal: Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)
• 87'Goal: Pio Esposito (Italy)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Wed 30 Sept, 01:09 UTC

Italy's form is dominant; Türkiye yet to score in this group

The pre-match probabilities and the underlying data are telling the same story here, which is where it gets interesting. Italy's xG across their last 8 matches reads 2.92 for and just 0.22 against — an extraordinary defensive number that suggests their clean sheet record (4 in 8) is not luck. Türkiye, meanwhile, have managed only 3.5 shots on target per game despite generating a reasonable xG of 2.61, pointing to a shot-quality or finishing problem that is harder to fix in the short term. In the Nations League specifically, Türkiye have conceded 5 goals and scored 1 in two matches, while Italy just put 4 past this same Türkiye side on 28 September — making this fixture feel less like an open contest and more like a test of whether Türkiye can produce something they have not shown in this competition so far.

Italy have a clear statistical edge

Key factors

• Italy's xG against across their last 8 matches is just 0.22 — an exceptionally low figure that points to elite defensive organisation, not chance
• Italy have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8 games, while Türkiye have scored only 0.5 goals per game in this Nations League group so far
• Türkiye's shots on target average of 3.5 per game is markedly low relative to their 17 total shots per game, suggesting poor shot selection or finishing
• The most recent meeting (28 September) ended 4-1 to Italy, with Türkiye sitting bottom of Group A on 0 points and a goal difference of -4
• Italy's season form in this competition reads 'LW' with 2.0 goals scored per game, while Türkiye's reads 'LL' with just 0.5 scored — a sharp contrast in Nations League output specifically
• API-Football's model leans Italy or draw, aligning with the broader statistical picture rather than contradicting it

What could change it

Türkiye showed in the World Cup group stage that they can beat a strong USA side 3-2 and score freely in different contexts, so their finishing problems may be situational rather than structural. A must-win scenario for Türkiye (0 points, bottom of the group) could unlock a more aggressive approach that the recent numbers simply do not yet reflect.

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 4

• 2026-09-28Türkiye1–4Italy
• 2024-06-04Italy0–0Türkiye
• 2022-03-29Türkiye2–3Italy
• 2021-06-11Türkiye0–3Italy

The table · League A - Group A

Earlier meetings on APEX

• Türkiye 1–4 Italy2026-09-28

  APEX before kickoff: Razor-thin margins separate these two struggling sides