Newcastle vs Everton

The APEX preview · Mon 26 Oct, 13:26 UTC

Everton's resilience meets Newcastle's shaky defensive numbers

The pre-match probabilities give Newcastle a 42.5% chance of winning at St. James' Park, with Everton at 31.5% and a draw at 26% — so the home side holds a clear but not commanding advantage. What makes this interesting is that Newcastle's underlying numbers don't fully support that lean: their xG against sits at 1.71 per game across the last eight matches, and they've conceded 1.5 goals per game over that stretch, suggesting a defence that leaks. Everton, meanwhile, have gone 2W-4D-2L in their last eight, accumulating four draws and keeping three clean sheets — a side that grinds, doesn't concede freely (1.13 goals against), and rarely gets blown out. The tension here is between Newcastle's home advantage lifting their probability and their actual defensive fragility, which Everton's compact style could exploit.

Match looks tight, slight lean toward a close Everton non-loss outcome

Key factors

• Newcastle's xG against of 1.71 per game in recent form is notably high for a side favoured to win — their defence has been genuinely porous
• Everton have drawn four of their last eight matches, and their xG against of 1.33 suggests the clean-sheet numbers (3 in 8) aren't flukes
• Newcastle's season goals-against average of 1.8 per game is the highest of the two sides in this competition, supporting the defensive vulnerability picture
• Everton generate 15.8 shots per game versus Newcastle's 12.8, meaning the away side creates volume — though Everton convert at a low rate (0.88 goals for per game)
• API-Football's model leans toward an Everton win or draw outcome, which aligns with Everton's draw-heavy recent pattern and Newcastle's inconsistent home form
• Newcastle's recent eight-match sequence includes three losses, one against Coventry (1-4) and one against Leeds (1-4), underlining that defensive collapses are not rare

What could change it

Newcastle's 54% possession and home-ground factor are real advantages that could allow them to control the game and limit Everton's shot volume below their 15.8-per-game recent average. If Newcastle's defence tightens — as the three clean sheets in eight games show they occasionally can — the home-win probability of 42.5% looks more than reasonable.

Pre-match probabilities

Newcastle

42.5%

Draw

26%

Everton

31.5%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-08-12Newcastle1–3Everton
• 2026-02-28Newcastle2–3Everton
• 2025-11-29Everton1–4Newcastle
• 2025-05-25Newcastle0–1Everton
• 2024-10-05Everton0–0Newcastle

The table · Premier League

• Premier LeagueSun 25 Oct, 14:00 UTC
  Crystal Palace0–2Newcastle

  Newcastle favoured but their underlying numbers tell a messier story

• Premier LeagueSat 24 Oct, 14:00 UTC
  Arsenal2–0Everton

  Arsenal's xG dominance makes Everton's task look steep

• Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 16:30 UTC
  Newcastle0–1Aston Villa

  Newcastle hold the edge, but their xG tells a different story

• Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 11:30 UTC
  Everton0–2Chelsea

  Chelsea favoured but Everton's defensive solidity complicates the picture