FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg

The APEX preview · Mon 26 Oct, 13:27 UTC

Freiburg's class edge meets Augsburg's chaotic, goal-heavy home

The pre-match probabilities make SC Freiburg the clearest favourite at 42.7%, with Augsburg at 32.2% and the draw at 25.1% — and the underlying data largely backs that lean. Freiburg sit third in the Bundesliga on 13 points from 7 games with a +7 goal difference, while Augsburg are ninth on 9 points. The interesting wrinkle is that Augsburg's recent form is genuinely noisy: their xG against (2.82 per game across the last 8) is significantly higher than their xG for (2.18), suggesting they have been overperforming defensively and are vulnerable. Freiburg's xG numbers are tighter and more controlled — 1.46 for versus 1.26 against — pointing to a more structured side, though their three consecutive losses entering this fixture are worth noting as a momentum complication.

Freiburg carry the stronger structural case

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities lean Freiburg at 42.7% vs Augsburg's 32.2% — a meaningful gap that the season standings (rank 3 vs rank 9) reinforce.
• Augsburg's xG against of 2.82 per game over their last 8 is the most alarming number in this dataset — they have been conceding high-quality chances at a rate their results have not fully reflected.
• Freiburg's xG differential (1.46 for / 1.26 against) suggests they are a controlled, efficient side despite their recent losing streak in Bundesliga and European competition.
• Augsburg have scored in 88% of recent matches with both teams scoring in those same 88% of games — this is a leaky, open environment at the WWK Arena.
• Freiburg have won 4 of their last 8 across all competitions and hold 53% average possession — they have the profile of a side that can dictate tempo against a lower-block Augsburg (45% possession average).
• API-Football's model leans Freiburg, flagging a win-or-draw outcome as the most likely scenario, consistent with the pre-match probability spread.

What could change it

Freiburg have lost their last three matches — two in the Bundesliga and one in Europe — which may reflect genuine fatigue or a dip in sharpness that a buoyant Augsburg home crowd could exploit. Augsburg's two wins closing their last 8 games, including a 4-1 away at Eintracht Frankfurt, show they are capable of dangerous attacking performances when clicking.

Pre-match probabilities

FC Augsburg

32.2%

Draw

25.1%

SC Freiburg

42.7%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-01-18FC Augsburg2–2SC Freiburg
• 2025-08-23SC Freiburg1–3FC Augsburg
• 2025-03-02FC Augsburg0–0SC Freiburg
• 2024-10-19SC Freiburg3–1FC Augsburg
• 2024-02-25FC Augsburg2–1SC Freiburg

The table · Bundesliga

• BundesligaSun 25 Oct, 16:30 UTC
  SC Freiburg1–3Bayern München

  Bayern's xG machine dwarfs Freiburg, but the hosts surprise

• BundesligaSun 18 Oct, 13:30 UTC
  Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg

  Leverkusen favoured at home, but Freiburg arrive top of the table

• BundesligaSat 31 Oct, 17:30 UTC
  Bayern MünchenvsBorussia Dortmund

  Bayern's xG machine faces Dortmund's stubborn defensive structure

• BundesligaSat 24 Oct, 16:30 UTC
  Borussia Dortmund1–0Eintracht Frankfurt

  Dortmund's xG dominance makes a strong case at home