Germany vs Serbia

The result

• 39'Goal: Tom Bischof (Germany)
• 61'Goal: Florian Wirtz (Germany)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Mon 28 Sept, 14:18 UTC

Germany heavily favoured but their own form tells a messier story

The pre-match probabilities are emphatic — Germany at 77.3% to win, Serbia at just 8.3% — and on paper the gap is real. But Germany's recent eight-match run is bumpier than that figure implies: two losses and two draws in their last four outings, including a 0-1 home defeat to Greece just days ago in this same Nations League group. Serbia, meanwhile, are in freefall — six losses in their last eight, averaging just 0.88 goals scored per game against 2.38 conceded, with zero clean sheets in that stretch. The underlying xG numbers actually deepen the contrast: Germany's xG of 2.06 for versus 0.83 against over recent matches suggests their attacking and defensive quality is genuinely superior, even if results have wobbled. The probability signal and the xG picture broadly agree — Germany are the dominant side — but the recent results form adds a layer of caution about how clinical that dominance will be on the night.

Germany have the clear edge

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities place Germany at 77.3% — an extremely strong home favourite signal that anchors the entire read.
• Germany's xG for (2.06) versus against (0.83) over the last 8 matches confirms underlying quality, even amid a patchy run of 2W-2D-2L in their last six.
• Serbia have lost 6 of their last 8, scoring just 0.88 goals per game while conceding 2.38 — the worst attacking and defensive numbers in this matchup by a wide margin.
• Serbia's shots output is strikingly low at 6.4 per game with only 2.8 on target, compared to Germany's 16.8 shots and 6.4 on target — a near-threefold volume difference.
• Serbia's xG against (0.93) is actually lower than their goals against (2.38) over recent matches, suggesting they have been conceding more than their underlying defensive shape would predict — likely a finishing efficiency problem for opponents that may self-correct.
• Both teams are bottom of Group 2 with Germany on 1 point and Serbia on 0 — stakes are high for both sides, but that desperation cuts differently: Germany have quality to unlock, Serbia may be forced to overcommit and expose themselves further.

What could change it

Germany's in-competition season form reads 'DL' with just 0.5 goals scored per game in this Nations League group, and they shipped a home loss to Greece days ago — if that confidence dip lingers into this game, Serbia could nick something against the run of play. API-Football's model leans toward a Serbia win or draw, which is a notable dissenting voice, though it sits well outside the main probability picture.

Pre-match probabilities

Germany

77.3%

Draw

14.4%

Serbia

8.3%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 2

• 2019-03-20Germany1–1Serbia
• 2010-06-18Germany0–1Serbia

The table · Group 2