Serbia vs Netherlands

The result

• 30'Penalty: Mexx Meerdink (Netherlands)
• 46'Goal: Luka Jovic (Serbia)
• 69'Goal: Mexx Meerdink (Netherlands)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:52 UTC

Netherlands heavy favourites as Serbia's form crumbles

The pre-match probabilities give Netherlands a commanding 67.5% chance of winning, with Serbia at just 12.6% — and the recent form data does very little to challenge that picture. Serbia have lost five of their last eight, conceding at an average of 2.25 goals per game, and their most recent outing was a 1-2 home defeat to Greece. Netherlands, by contrast, have gone 3W-4D-1L in the same window, scoring 1.88 goals per game and giving up only 1.13, with their sole loss coming against Algeria in a friendly. The underlying signals are unusually aligned here — the probability lean, the goals differential, and the form trajectory all point in the same direction.

Netherlands strongly favoured to win

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities give Netherlands 67.5% vs Serbia's 12.6% — a massive gap that sets the baseline for this analysis
• Serbia have conceded 2.25 goals per game across their last eight matches, keeping zero clean sheets throughout that run
• Netherlands have averaged 1.88 goals scored against only 1.13 conceded per game in the same period — a clearly positive goal differential
• Serbia's average of just 6 shots per game (2.3 on target) signals a side struggling to create, despite their xG for (1.06) slightly outpacing their actual output (1.13 goals per game)
• Serbia's possession figure of 33% across recent matches suggests they are routinely outrun and pinned back — a structural disadvantage against a Netherlands side with World Cup group stage pedigree in their recent fixtures
• Netherlands drew 1-1 with Germany just three days ago, arriving into this match with competitive minutes and rhythm rather than rust

What could change it

Serbia's xG for (1.06 per game) is actually ahead of their xG against (0.93), which hints they are creating slightly more than their defensive record suggests — meaning they could nick something if Netherlands take their foot off the pedal. Netherlands have drawn four of their last eight and kept zero clean sheets, so a resolute Serbia side could make this competitive even if a Serbia win remains the least likely outcome.

Pre-match probabilities

Serbia

12.6%

Draw

19.9%

Netherlands

67.5%

Recent form · per game, last 8

The table · Group 2