Greece vs Netherlands

The result

• 23'Goal: Fotis Ioannidis (Greece)
• 45+2'Goal: Georgios Masouras (Greece)
• 59'Goal: Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands)
• 89'Goal: Tijjani Reijnders (Netherlands)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Mon 28 Sept, 14:19 UTC

Greece lead the table but Netherlands carry the stronger underlying numbers

The pre-match probabilities give Netherlands a 43.9% chance of winning, Greece 29.3%, and the draw 26.8% — a clear lean toward the visitors despite Greece sitting top of the group. That tension is the story here: Greece have been genuinely impressive in this Nations League window, winning both openers including a 1-0 away win in Germany, yet their xG output over the last eight matches (1.97 for, 0.94 against) tells a slightly different tale — they are producing more than they score and conceding very little, which looks like a defensively solid but not dominant attacking side. Netherlands, meanwhile, have a lower xG for (1.42) than Greece but are averaging 2.0 goals per game across their last eight, suggesting they are finishing above expectation. The pre-match probabilities likely reflect the Dutch squad's overall quality ceiling rather than their recent rhythmic form.

Netherlands have the edge, but Greece's defensive solidity and home standing make this genuinely tight

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities strongly favour Netherlands at 43.9% — nearly 15 percentage points clear of Greece's 29.3%
• Greece's xG against across the last 8 matches is just 0.94 per game, with 3 clean sheets — their defensive structure is a genuine asset
• Netherlands have kept zero clean sheets in their last 8 matches and concede in 88% of games (both teams scored rate), meaning Greece have a real pathway to scoring
• Netherlands average 15.8 shots per game (6.2 on target) versus Greece's 14.3 (4.4 on target) — the Dutch carry more sustained attacking threat
• In Nations League play specifically, Greece sit top with 6 points from 2 games while Netherlands are second with 4 — Greece have the standings edge and home advantage
• API-Football's model leans Greece or draw, adding a secondary voice to the idea that a Netherlands win is not as clean a read as the probabilities alone suggest

What could change it

Greece's back-to-back wins in this Nations League group — including away at Germany — could evaporate quickly if Netherlands sharpen their finishing; the Dutch have scored 2.0 goals per game despite an xG of only 1.42, meaning they are due some regression toward the mean which could cool their attacking output at a bad moment. Equally, Greece's own xG for (1.97) significantly outpaces their goals scored (1.0 per game), so the Greeks may be creating more danger than the scorelines have shown.

Pre-match probabilities

Greece

29.3%

Draw

26.8%

Netherlands

43.9%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 3

• 2023-10-16Greece0–1Netherlands
• 2023-09-07Netherlands3–0Greece
• 2020-05-28Netherlands–--Greece

The table · Group 2