Croatia vs England

The result

• 8'Goal: Harry Kane (England)
• 21'Goal: Jude Bellingham (England)
• 39'Goal: Anthony Gordon (England)
• 45'Goal: Bukayo Saka (England)
• 53'Goal: Harry Kane (England)
• 68'Goal: Bukayo Saka (England)
• 87'Goal: Morgan Rogers (England)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:51 UTC

England's form looks formidable, Croatia's xG tells a concerning story

The pre-match probabilities haven't been supplied for this fixture, so the form data carries extra weight here — and it paints a fairly clear picture. England arrive having gone 6W-1D-1L across their last eight, scoring 2.5 goals per game against Croatia's 1.38. The more telling detail is the xG gap: England generate 1.51 xG per game while Croatia concede 1.64 xG per game — Croatia are being outchanced regularly, and their own attacking output of just 1.03 xG for suggests they're not creating chances commensurate with the goals they occasionally score. Their head-to-head from the 2026 World Cup group stage — England 4-2 Croatia — sits inside both squads' recent memory and recent data simultaneously.

England hold a meaningful form and underlying stats edge

Key factors

• England's recent goal output: 2.5 per game versus Croatia's 1.38 — a gap of over a goal per match on average
• Croatia's xG for of 1.03 per game is well below their actual goals scored of 1.38, suggesting some positive finishing variance that may not hold
• Croatia's xG against of 1.64 per game shows they are conceding chances at a high rate, regardless of opponent
• England's shot volume is meaningfully higher: 12.3 shots per game (5.3 on target) versus Croatia's 10.7 (4.0 on target)
• Croatia have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches, while England have kept 2 — England's defence is marginally more solid in recent run
• Croatia's record is 4W-4L with zero draws in eight matches, pointing to a volatile, open side — England's 6W-1D-1L shows more consistent control

What could change it

Croatia's actual goal return (1.38 per game) does exceed their xG (1.03), which means they have shown a capacity to punch above their expected output — if that continues, the margin could tighten. England's own xG for (1.51) also runs below their goals scored (2.5), so both teams' raw numbers carry some variance that could compress in either direction on the day.

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-06-17England4–2Croatia
• 2021-06-13England1–0Croatia
• 2018-11-18England2–1Croatia
• 2018-10-12Croatia0–0England
• 2018-07-11Croatia2–1England