England vs Spain

The result

• 2'Goal: Lamine Yamal (Spain)
• 36'Goal: Anthony Gordon (England)
• 40'Goal: Harry Kane (England)
• 54'Goal: Harry Kane (England)
• 60'Goal: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez (Spain)
• 74'Goal: Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:48 UTC

Spain's defensive fortress makes them heavy favourites here

The pre-match probabilities give Spain a 44.9% chance of winning, with England and the draw nearly level at 27.5% and 27.6% respectively — and Spain's recent form data emphatically backs that lean. Spain have conceded just 0.13 goals per game across their last 8 matches, keeping 7 clean sheets, while their xG against sits at a remarkable 0.5 per game, suggesting the defensive dominance is genuine and not just fortunate. England, by contrast, have allowed an average of 1.69 xG per game in the same window — actually more than they've generated (1.51 xG for) — meaning their 6W-1D-1L record flatters their underlying performance slightly. The gap between these two sides in terms of defensive solidity and shot volume (Spain average 16 shots per game versus England's 12.3) is about as clear as form data gets.

Spain have a clear edge across multiple signals

Key factors

• Spain's xG against of 0.5 per game across 8 matches is elite-level defensive organisation, backed by 7 clean sheets in 8 games
• England's xG for (1.51) trails their xG against (1.69), meaning they have been creating less than opponents have against them — a concerning underlying signal
• Spain average 16 shots per game with 7 on target; England average 12.3 shots with 5.3 on target — a meaningful volume gap
• Spain's goals conceded rate of 0.13 per game dwarfs England's 1.5 against, illustrating just how different these teams' defensive profiles are right now
• Both teams scored in 75% of England's last 8 games, compared to just 13% of Spain's — reflecting Spain's ability to control and shut out opponents entirely
• Pre-match probabilities place Spain as clear favourites at 44.9%, with England's win probability (27.5%) barely edging the draw (27.6%), confirming how tight the non-Spain outcomes are rated

What could change it

England's World Cup run, including a 6-4 win over France, shows they are capable of explosive outputs — if they find an early goal, the dynamic shifts quickly given this is a Nations League match with different tactical stakes than a World Cup knockout. Spain's xG numbers, while dominant, were partly accumulated against lower-ranked opposition early in the tournament, so England's quality represents a genuine step up in class as an opponent.

Pre-match probabilities

England

27.5%

Draw

27.6%

Spain

44.9%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 3

• 2024-07-14Spain2–1England
• 2018-10-15Spain2–3England
• 2018-09-08England1–2Spain