Spain vs Czechia

The result

• 6'Goal: Lamine Yamal (Spain)
• 35'Goal: Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante (Spain)
• 69'Goal: Jiri Slama (Czechia)
• 85'Red card: Ladislav Krejčí (Czechia)
• 89'Goal: Mikel Merino (Spain)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Thu 1 Oct, 01:09 UTC

Spain's form machine faces a Czech side running on empty

The pre-match probabilities give Spain an overwhelming 88.2% chance of winning, and the underlying data does nothing to contradict that — it actively amplifies it. Spain have won all eight of their last matches, scoring 2.13 goals per game while conceding just 0.5, with an xG against of only 0.38 showing how little they genuinely allow. Czechia, by contrast, carry a 2W-2D-4L record across their last eight, an xG for of just 0.93 per game, and have yet to register a single clean sheet in that stretch. With Spain sitting top of Group C on 6 points and Czechia anchored to the bottom with zero, the standings reinforce what the performance numbers already say.

Spain strongly favoured across every signal

Key factors

• Spain's xG for (1.87 per game) dwarfs Czechia's xG against (1.84 per game) — the attacking quality meets a defence that has been leaking at exactly the right rate for Spain to exploit
• Czechia have kept zero clean sheets in their last eight matches, conceding 1.63 goals per game against an average level of opposition
• Spain average 15.3 shots per game with 6.3 on target; Czechia manage only 8.2 shots and 3.0 on target — the shot volume gap is enormous
• Spain's possession average of 64% versus Czechia's 35% signals Czechia will spend most of this match defending without the ball, a position they have struggled in all campaign
• Spain's recent schedule includes wins over Argentina (1-0), France (2-0), and England (3-2) — this is a team in peak competitive condition, not coasting
• API-Football's model also leans Spain, adding a secondary layer of agreement to the directional read

What could change it

Czechia have nothing left to lose in this group, which can occasionally unlock a more direct, chaotic approach that disrupts a possession-dominant side — as their 2022 draw against Spain shows is not impossible. Spain also have a habit of managing intensity once a game is controlled, so if the contest stays close into the second half, complacency could narrow the gap slightly.

Pre-match probabilities

Spain

88.2%

Draw

8.6%

Czechia

3.3%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 3

• 2022-06-12Spain2–0Czechia
• 2022-06-05Czechia2–2Spain
• 2016-06-13Spain1–0Czechia

The table · League A - Group C