Croatia vs Spain

The APEX preview · Wed 30 Sept, 01:09 UTC

Spain's relentless form towers over a leaky Croatia side

The pre-match probabilities heavily favour Spain, and the underlying numbers do nothing to challenge that lean — they reinforce it emphatically. Spain have won all 8 of their last matches, posting an xG of 1.9 per game against opponents while conceding an xG of just 0.41, which is a genuinely elite defensive-and-attacking profile. Croatia, by contrast, have leaked 1.88 goals per game across their last 8, with an xG against of 1.48, and critically the two sides met just seven days ago with Spain winning 4-1. Croatia's own xG for sits at a modest 0.91 per game, meaning even when Croatia create, the quality is limited. Spain sit top of the Nations League group on 6 points from 2 games; Croatia are third on 3 points with a goal difference of -2.

Spain firmly hold the edge in this match

Key factors

• Spain are on an 8-match winning streak across all competitions, the only team in this data set with a perfect recent record
• Spain's xG against across their last 8 games is just 0.41 per match — one of the tightest defensive profiles in this dataset, backed by 5 clean sheets in 8 games
• Croatia's xG for is only 0.91 per game, suggesting their attacking output is structurally limited, not just unlucky
• Spain outshoot Croatia heavily: 16.8 shots per game (7.8 on target) vs Croatia's 10.6 shots (3.9 on target) — more than double the on-target output
• The direct head-to-head seven days ago ended 4-1 to Spain, the most recent and most relevant data point in this fixture
• Spain lead Group C by 3 points and have a +4 goal difference vs Croatia's -2 — the structural stakes further motivate a Spanish performance

What could change it

Croatia are playing at home this time, reversing the venue from the 4-1 loss, and home crowds can lift a team's defensive organisation and compactness — Croatia did win their last home Nations League fixture against Czechia 2-1. If Croatia set up narrowly and disrupt Spain's possession rhythm early, a scrappy result becomes less implausible, though Spain's xG numbers suggest they find ways through even cautious setups.

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 5

• 2026-09-29Spain4–1Croatia
• 2024-06-15Spain3–0Croatia
• 2023-06-18Croatia0–0Spain
• 2021-06-28Croatia3–5Spain
• 2018-11-15Croatia3–2Spain

The table · League A - Group C

Earlier meetings on APEX

• Spain 4–1 Croatia2026-09-29

  APEX before kickoff: Spain's form and probabilities align almost perfectly against Croatia

• Spain 4–1 Croatia2026-09-29

  APEX before kickoff: Spain's form and probabilities align almost perfectly against Croatia