Premier LeaguePreview

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Tottenham

Crystal Palace

The APEX preview · Mon 26 Oct, 13:25 UTC

Spurs carry the edge but their form is genuinely mixed

The pre-match probabilities give Tottenham a 61.4% chance of winning at home, making them clear favourites, but their recent form tells a more cautious story: just 2 wins in their last 8 across all competitions, with a goals-for average of only 1.13 per game. Crystal Palace arrive in worse shape — 4 losses in their last 8 and a punishing 1.88 goals conceded per game — which is where the probabilities find their support. The interesting tension is that Tottenham's xG of 1.12 for and 1.00 against over recent matches suggests they are not dramatically outperforming their opponents in underlying terms, yet the gap in Palace's defensive fragility (GD of -10 on the season) does provide a real structural edge for the home side.

Home side has the edge

Key factors

Tottenham's pre-match win probability of 61.4% is backed by Crystal Palace sitting 17th with just 7 points and a season GD of -10
Palace have conceded 1.88 goals per game in their last 8 matches and allowed 3+ goals in 63% of those fixtures — their defence is leaking badly
Spurs have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 8 despite inconsistent results, suggesting their defensive base is more stable than Palace's
Tottenham dominate possession at 61% and generate 17 shots per game (5 on target), giving them a volume advantage over Palace's 14.3 shots (4.5 on target)
Spurs' recent Premier League season form reads LLDDLDWW — the last two league results are both wins, including a 2-0 away at Chelsea, hinting at an upward trajectory
API-Football's model also leans toward Tottenham, categorising the likely outcome as a win or draw for the home side

What could change it

Tottenham's underlying xG numbers are modest — 1.12 per game — and their broader last-8 record of just 2 wins means they have not been dominant despite the possession and shot volume. If Palace can stay compact and absorb pressure, the 21.5% draw probability is a non-trivial outcome worth keeping in mind.