FYR Macedonia vs Scotland

The result

• 7'Goal: Kieron Bowie (Scotland)
• 69'Penalty: John McGinn (Scotland)
• 83'Red card: Scott Mckenna (Scotland)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Thu 1 Oct, 13:43 UTC

Scotland heavily favoured against a Macedonia side scoring nothing

The pre-match probabilities hand Scotland a 53.3% chance of winning, with Macedonia sitting at just 19.3% — and the underlying numbers do nothing to challenge that gap, they widen it. Macedonia have scored zero goals in each of their last five competitive matches, posting an xG of just 0.59 per game across their last eight while conceding at an xG rate of 4.63 against. Scotland, meanwhile, generate 12.5 shots per game and 4.4 on target — a volume Macedonia's defence has shown no ability to absorb. The one genuine tension in the picture is that Scotland's own xG for (0.87 per game) lags behind their actual results, suggesting their recent wins were somewhat fortune-assisted — but even discounting that, the directional edge toward a Scotland result is hard to argue with.

Scotland have a clear directional edge in this match

Key factors

• Macedonia have scored in just one of their last eight matches, averaging 0.13 goals per game with a meagre xG of 0.59
• Macedonia's defensive xG conceded sits at 4.63 per game — among the most exposed numbers in this dataset
• Scotland generate 12.5 shots per game, 4.4 on target — vastly outstripping Macedonia's 3.9 shots and 1.8 on target
• Pre-match probabilities give Scotland 53.3% to win outright, with the draw at 27.4% and Macedonia at just 19.3%
• Macedonia are bottom of the group with 0 points and a goal difference of -5 after two games; Scotland sit third with 1 point
• API-Football's model also leans Scotland, flagging a 'win or draw' outcome as its categorical read

What could change it

Scotland's xG for (0.87 per game) is notably lower than their goal output would suggest, meaning their recent form carries some luck — if that regresses, a low-scoring or drawn contest is plausible. Macedonia have kept three clean sheets in their last eight, so while they score nothing, they are not always wide open on their own terms.

Pre-match probabilities

FYR Macedonia

19.3%

Draw

27.4%

Scotland

53.3%

Recent form · per game, last 8

The table · League B - Group A