FYR Macedonia vs Switzerland

The result

• 22'Goal: Remo Freuler (Switzerland)
• 41'Goal: Zeki Amdouni (Switzerland)
• 74'Goal: Zeki Amdouni (Switzerland)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:52 UTC

Switzerland's data dominance makes this a lopsided contest

The pre-match probabilities are emphatic: Switzerland are given a 70.5% chance of winning, with FYR Macedonia sitting at just 10.2%. The underlying numbers don't just agree with that lean — they reinforce it at almost every turn. Switzerland arrive having just competed at the World Cup, generating 2.12 xG per game against only 0.83 conceded, while FYR Macedonia's last eight matches show a meagre 0.25 goals scored per game and an xG of just 1.11 — spread across eight matches total, not one. The one genuinely interesting wrinkle is that this is match day 1 of a fresh Nations League group, so both sides sit on zero points, which means Switzerland have no incentive to manage the game conservatively.

Switzerland firmly favoured across all signals

Key factors

• Switzerland's xG of 2.12 for versus 0.83 against over their last 8 games signals genuine attacking quality and defensive solidity simultaneously
• FYR Macedonia have scored just 2 goals total in their last 8 matches — a rate of 0.25 per game — and mustered only 1.11 xG across that same run, indicating their attacking threat is essentially non-existent
• Switzerland average 15 shots per game with 6 on target; FYR Macedonia manage only 5.4 shots per game with 2.4 on target — a near 3-to-1 difference in shots and a 2.5-to-1 gap in shots on target
• Switzerland's possession figure of 62% versus FYR Macedonia's 39% suggests the Swiss will control the tempo and territory, with FYR Macedonia likely to sit deep and absorb pressure
• FYR Macedonia have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8, but three of those opponents — Latvia, Kazakhstan, and Bosnia — were far less threatening than a Switzerland side that just posted wins over Algeria, Canada, and Bosnia at a World Cup
• The pre-match probability of 70.5% for Switzerland is one of the strongest away win signals you'll see at this level, and the form data provides independent corroboration rather than contradiction

What could change it

FYR Macedonia's four clean sheets in eight matches show they can organise and frustrate when they commit numbers behind the ball, and a Nations League opener — with nothing yet at stake — could tempt Switzerland into something less than full intensity. The draw at 19.4% isn't entirely irrational if FYR Macedonia park deep and Switzerland struggle to break them down as they did against Colombia 0-0 at the World Cup.

Pre-match probabilities

FYR Macedonia

10.2%

Draw

19.4%

Switzerland

70.5%

Recent form · per game, last 8