Switzerland vs Slovenia

The result

• 2'Goal: Zan Vipotnik (Slovenia)
• 10'Own goal: Erik Janža (Switzerland)
• 38'Goal: Dan Ndoye (Switzerland)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Thu 1 Oct, 13:43 UTC

Switzerland's dominance backed by numbers across the board

The pre-match probabilities hand Switzerland a commanding 70.7% chance of winning at home, and the underlying data does very little to argue against that. Switzerland's recent form reads 5W-2D-1L across their last eight, scoring 2 goals per game while conceding just 0.75, compared to Slovenia's 2W-3D-3L run with only 1 goal scored per game and 3 shots on target per match. The xG picture reinforces the gap: Switzerland generating 1.74 per game against Slovenia's 1.23, while Switzerland's shots on target (6.6 per game) nearly double Slovenia's output (3 per game). In this Nations League group specifically, Switzerland sit top with 6 points and a +6 goal difference, having already beaten Slovenia 3-0 earlier in this same campaign.

Switzerland firmly favoured at home

Key factors

• Pre-match probabilities give Switzerland 70.7% — the strongest single signal and it aligns with form across every major metric
• Switzerland averaging 2 goals scored per game in their last 8, Slovenia averaging just 1 — a full-goal gap in attacking output
• Slovenia managing only 3 shots on target per game versus Switzerland's 6.6 — a 2:1 ratio in shot quality volume
• Switzerland's xG for (1.74) exceeds Slovenia's xG for (1.23) while also conceding less (0.92 vs 0.97) — edges on both sides of the ball
• Switzerland have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 8 matches; their Nations League season shows zero goals conceded in 2 games
• Switzerland already put 3 past this exact Slovenia side in September in the same competition — direct evidence of the quality gap

What could change it

Slovenia have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 8 and concede an xG of only 0.97 per game, suggesting they can be defensively organised when the game plan demands it — if they sit deep and absorb, the scoreline could stay tighter than the probability gap implies. A low-block Slovenia approach combined with Switzerland having an off-night in front of goal is the most realistic path to a draw outcome that the 19.4% probability still leaves room for.

Pre-match probabilities

Switzerland

70.7%

Draw

19.4%

Slovenia

9.9%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 2

• 2025-10-13Slovenia0–0Switzerland
• 2025-09-08Switzerland3–0Slovenia

The table · League B - Group A