Scotland vs Switzerland

The result

• 11'Red card: Jack Hendry (Scotland)
• 12'Goal: Ricardo Rodríguez (Switzerland)
• 55'Goal: Nico Elvedi (Switzerland)
• 82'Goal: Zeki Amdouni (Switzerland)

What APEX wrote before kickoff · Sat 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC

Switzerland's underlying numbers make a strong case for their 45.8% probability

The pre-match probabilities give Switzerland a 45.8% chance of winning, with Scotland at just 26.8% — and the recent form data agrees loudly with that gap. Switzerland have posted an xG of 2.12 per game while conceding just 0.83 xG against, whereas Scotland's numbers tell the opposite story: only 1.07 xG for versus a worrying 2.21 xG against over their last eight matches. That xG differential of roughly 1.3 in Switzerland's favour on both ends of the pitch is not a small discrepancy — it suggests Scotland have been getting exposed structurally even when results have looked passable. The pre-match probabilities and the underlying performance data are pointing firmly in the same direction here.

Switzerland hold a clear analytical edge

Key factors

• Scotland's xG against (2.21/g) is more than double Switzerland's xG against (0.83/g), indicating Scotland have been frequently carved open in recent matches
• Switzerland's xG for (2.12/g) comfortably outpaces Scotland's xG for (1.07/g), showing a clear attacking quality gap in the underlying numbers
• Switzerland have averaged 15 shots per game with 6 on target versus Scotland's 11.8 shots and only 4.5 on target — a consistent output edge
• Switzerland's 62% average possession versus Scotland's 46% suggests Switzerland are likely to control the tempo and territory of this match
• Scotland's recent losses include 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Morocco, Japan, and Ivory Coast — defeats against sides with meaningful pressing and transition quality, similar to Switzerland's profile
• The draw sits at 27.3% — nearly identical to Scotland's win probability of 26.8% — meaning the pre-match picture sees Scotland and a stalemate as roughly equal outcomes, with Switzerland clearly ahead of both

What could change it

Scotland have shown they can produce big results — their 4-0 win over Bolivia and 4-1 over Curaçao show a high-variance side capable of explosiveness against certain opponents, and a Nations League opener on home soil could lift their intensity. Switzerland's most recent outing was a 1-3 World Cup loss to Argentina, so there are signs their defensive structure can be breached by quality opposition — though Scotland's xG numbers suggest they haven't been that quality lately.

Pre-match probabilities

Scotland

26.8%

Draw

27.3%

Switzerland

45.8%

Recent form · per game, last 8

Head-to-head · last 1

• 2024-06-19Scotland1–1Switzerland